The Truth

What is the truth? I fear that I will never know. How could I? Could you?

I read stuff. Lots of stuff. Right now, I’m part way through a paper concerned with how advertising can best reach its target audience, and I’ve just begun the fifth instalment of the Harry Potter septology (is that a word?). Just now, I finished reading this:

https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/7/27/lockdownlunacythree

I know for sure, as much as it’s possible to know for sure, that the paper I read is reporting research which has been done at a university here in Taiwan, and advertisers may well be interested in the results. I know for sure, unless I’m actually living in a fake world and K Reeves esquire is about to rock up and explain The Matrix to me, that Master Potter and his friends and enemies are the product of Ms Rowling’s imagination. As for the blog about COVID-19, well, I refer you to my opening line, above. I don’t know the author, but he has cited and provided several links to articles, papers and data on which he has made his analysis, so I am prepared to accept that it is worth reading. This is just one of a number of items I have read (or watched) over the past couple of months, most of which seem to be providing rather compelling evidence that this virus is serious, but in no way serious enough to warrant some of the draconian steps imposed by governents around the globe. The message that keeps coming through (and this is just my layman’s interpretation/summary) is that this is a nasty form of flu which compares fairly well with other recent serious flu outbreaks. I have seen graph after graph suggesting that death rates are consistent with seasonal flu, and that numbers are falling off exactly in line with the normal graphs for this kind of thing. Now, here I should stress that I am no scientist, no doctor, no epidemiologist, but I have been known to do a bit of data analysis back when I had a proper job. More to the point, I have never taken anything at face value. I want to question the rationale. But where do I find the evidence to support the rationale, for or against? It is simply impossible to verify anything.

Just the other day, I saw a piece of film, apparently showing a woman in a supermarket telling a mother and her children “I hope you all die!” Why? Because they were not wearing a mask. Of course, this may just be a piece of film made by a person or persons unknown with some kind of agenda, or simply hoping for something notionally outrageous enough to ‘go viral’, as they say. There is not a snowball’s chance in hell that I could ever know if what I just witnessed (online) was genuine. Indeed, I could even have witnessed said episode in the flesh, and I would still be unable to be 100% sure that it wasn’t a group of wannabes seeking their fifteen minutes. This is a feeble example, but I chose it as rather typical of the kind of anecdotal evidence that is trotted out on just about anything, these days. On its own, it is meaningless, but I would bet my house that it has now been watched by millions, many of whom will not have questioned its veracity. It becomes part of the perceived truth, simply by being out there.

Back to the virus itself, and the measures being taken. I have been particularly interested in the comparisons being made around the world, not least with what has happened in Sweden. I’m not going to get into the details, but if you have a moment, I’d heartily recommend that you take a look at what’s, apparently, going on. You could do this through the medium of one of those loverly search engines on which we rely so much. My personal fears, based on what I have read/seen (and I have to admit based on opinions which appear to follow sound logic and science, and a rationale (or rationales) which make sense to my analytical brain) are two-fold. First, the lockdowns are likely to bring multiple unintended problems in the near future and for many years to come, and second, the country in which I live is never going to develop any kind of immunity (and I have my doubts that a vaccination will be forthcoming/effective any time soon, if you read the history of attempted vaccines for this kind of thing), so we will constantly be living in a state of paranoia.

Let me finish on another little slice of anecdotal evidence. Last week, I was driving home, heading south on Freeway 3. I decided to take a break at one of the service stations. As I attempted to enter the building in which I planned to purchase coffee and a bun, a young woman sopped me and asked if I had a facemask. I didn’t. Why would I? There have been no cases here for in excess of three months? Not a problem. I was given a mask. I entered the building. Many people were, understandably, sat eating and drinking. Ho hum. Such is Taiwan. Never mind. The visit suddenly took an unexpected turn.

As I left the building, I was accosted by a young police officer. In perfect English she carefully explained that the most dangerous part of my day now lay ahead of me: the drive home. She suggested I should take care, and further suggested that I might like to consider enrolling on a course to improve my driving skills, as the government is now keen to reduce the deaths and injuries on the roads. I nearly fainted.

Of course, this last part is complete bullshit. No truth here, whatsoever. Trust me, I made up the police officer bit. You do trust me, don’t you?

Eight deaths per day on the roads, not to mention hundreds of injuries. No matter, we’re all going to be safe with our masks. Jolly good. Carry on.